“消失的中国游客”，他们去了哪里?
Up to eight days before the arrival of the Golden Week, the railroad, civil aviation and tourism industries are preparing for a big test: the industry has frequently predicted the highest heat in the history of the National Day Golden Week, how will come raging?
距离黄金周到来还有8天，铁路、民航和旅游行业都在准备一场大考验:行业频频预测的国庆黄金周史上最高热度，将如何来肆虐?
The National Railway Group predicted that the transportation period during the National Day Golden Week exceeded the previous years' Golden Week, and the national railroad is expected to send 190 million passengers. In terms of civil aviation, more than 21 million passengers are expected to travel by air during the holiday. Ctrip released the "Mid-Autumn National Day Travel Forecast Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "report") shows that, as the outbound travel basically full liberalization of the first long holiday, outbound travel ushered in a spurt of growth, "11" during the overall order year-on-year growth of nearly 20 times.
Compared with the earlier fire up the domestic tourism, outbound tourism not only slowed down a few beats, more like "lying flat" for the first half of the year. In the first half of this year, in Thailand, Singapore, Japan and other Asia-Pacific tourism market, China is no longer the "largest source". This does not mean that Chinese tourists are no longer important, just because of a variety of factors, the potential of China's outbound tourism market has not been fully released.
据国家铁路总公司预测，国庆黄金周运输期超过往年黄金周，全国铁路预计发送旅客 1.9 亿人次。民航方面，预计长假期间乘飞机出行的旅客将超过 2100 万人次。携程发布的《中秋国庆旅游预测报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示，作为出境游基本全面放开的首个长假，出境游迎来井喷式增长，"十一 "期间整体订单同比增长近20倍。
与早前火起来的国内游相比，出境游不仅慢了几拍，更像是 "躺平 "了上半年。今年上半年，在泰国、新加坡、日本等亚太旅游市场，中国不再是 "最大客源国"。这并不意味着中国游客不再重要，只是因为种种因素，中国出境旅游市场的潜力还没有得到充分释放。
泰国芭提雅，游客走过日本美食广场——邦盛鱼市场。图/视觉中国
"The outbound travel market wants to return to the right track and needs at least three years of polishing." Yu Hui, general manager of emerging business of Zhongxin Travel and general manager of Miracle Travel, previously said in the media that in the case of the European tour segment, for example, it has only recovered to 1/4 of what it was in 2019.
"出境游市场想要回归正轨，至少需要三年的打磨"。众信旅游新兴业务总经理、奇迹旅游总经理余晖此前在媒体上表示，以欧洲游板块为例，目前只恢复到2019年的1/4。
From tourism agencies to the destination country, have opened the "grab mode". September 13, Thailand's Cabinet meeting decided to implement a five-month visa-free policy for Chinese tourists, the implementation of the time from September 25, 2023 to February 29, 2024 onwards. Covering China's Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day "Eleventh Golden Week", New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and other holidays, aimed at attracting more Chinese tourists to travel to Thailand. South Korea, Russia, Georgia and other countries are also brewing or formally launched for Chinese tourists visa-free or other procedures to optimize the policy.
从旅游机构到目的地国家，纷纷开启 "抢人模式"。9月13日，泰国内阁会议决定对中国游客实施为期5个月的免签政策，实施时间从2023年9月25日起至2024年2月29日止。覆盖中国中秋、国庆 "十一黄金周"、元旦、春节、元宵节等节假日，旨在吸引更多中国游客赴泰旅游。韩国、俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚等国也在酝酿或正式推出针对中国游客的免签或其他手续优化政策。
European medium and long term travel also finally see the dawn of recovery. Zongxin Travel and other organizations said that with the expansion of the third batch of outbound destinations, this year's National Day golden period out of the country basically liberalized, especially the recovery of the European team travel destinations, orders are hot. And travel to Japan in this golden week may be "cool", many travel agencies to launch the Japanese tourism product turnover appeared to be a sharp decline in the short-term trend of withdrawal is obvious, some tourists will travel enthusiasm to South Korea.
欧洲中长线游也终于看到了复苏的曙光。众信旅游等机构表示，随着第三批出境游目的地的扩大，今年国庆黄金期出境游基本放开，尤其是欧洲团队游目的地复苏，订单火爆。而赴日游在这个黄金周可能会 "凉凉"，不少旅行社推出的日本旅游产品成交量出现大幅下滑，短期内退团趋势明显，部分游客将出游热情转向韩国。
In the ultra-long tourism industry chain, any "black swan event" in any link may affect the final market effect. For those who attach importance to the Chinese tourism market, hoping to win back Chinese tourists, to solve not only how to facilitate the entry of Chinese tourists, but also to think more clearly is: why Chinese tourists do not want to come?
在超长旅游产业链中，任何一个环节的“黑天鹅事件”都可能影响最终的市场效应。对于那些重视中国旅游市场，希望赢回中国游客的人来说，要解决的不仅是如何方便中国游客入境，还要想得更清楚的是:为什么中国游客不愿意来?
游客在泰国芭提雅真理博物馆。图/视觉中国
"There is no shortage of tourists in Southeast Asia, just fewer Chinese tourists."
"东南亚不缺游客，缺的是中国游客"。
Earlier this year, China released two batches of two batches of a total of 60 countries to resume outbound group tours, Southeast Asia is the most eye-catching, popular destinations almost all on the list.
今年年初，我国发布了两批共60个国家恢复出境跟团游，东南亚最为抢眼，热门目的地几乎全部上榜。
After being trapped by the epidemic for many hours, the main overseas market for a number of travel agencies want to do a big job, have bet on Southeast Asia, while rebuilding the supply chain outside the country, while in the domestic marketing and soliciting customers. "Southeast Asia is close, cost-effective, accounted for the recovery of group tours first opportunity, at the same time, the greatest impact on the group tours of the flight capacity will also take the lead in the recovery." Beijing sunshine vacation international travel agency head Fu Zheng told reporters
在被疫情困住多时后，主打海外市场的多家旅行社想大干一场，纷纷押宝东南亚，一边在境外重建供应链，一边在国内营销揽客。"东南亚距离近，性价比高，占了跟团游复苏的先机，同时，对跟团游影响最大的航班运力也将率先复苏"。北京阳光假期国际旅行社负责人付峥告诉记者
"Frequent flyer" data show that in the second week of March this year, Chinese tourists outbound destinations in the top 8, Southeast Asian countries accounted for 6 seats, the other two popular destinations are Japan and South Korea. After the release of the second batch of outbound travel list, Tongcheng travel received to the relevant countries travel visa consulting volume instantaneous increase of more than four times.
"常客 "数据显示，今年3月第二周，中国游客出境游目的地前8名中，东南亚国家占了6席，另外两个热门目的地是日本和韩国。第二批出境游名单发布后，同程旅游接到的赴相关国家旅游签证咨询量瞬间增长了4倍多。
"More inquiries, fewer transactions." Fu Zheng quickly smelled the danger. Sure enough, by the end of March, the Southeast Asian market have not been able to wait for the "revenge tour". The first few months, by the long visa processing time, the supply of flights, destination hotels and high transportation costs, the lack of Chinese tour guides and many other factors, Southeast Asia once doubled the price of the product, from more than 3,000 yuan before the epidemic to six or seven thousand yuan. At that time, to go to the "domestic tourism top stream" city Zibo to eat a barbecue is also three digits.
"咨询多，交易少" 付峥很快嗅到了危险的味道。果然，到了3月底，东南亚市场已经等不及 "复仇游 "了。前几个月，受签证办理时间长、航班供应紧张、目的地酒店和交通成本高、缺乏中文导游等诸多因素影响，东南亚产品价格一度翻番，从疫情前的3000多元涨到六七千元。当时，去 "国内旅游顶流 "城市淄博吃一顿烧烤也要三位数。
泰国曼谷素万那普机场，泰国总理赛塔·他威信（中）在欢迎中国游客的活动中与游客合影。
However, as airline capacity and destination supply chains recovered, Southeast Asian travel prices gradually dropped back to pre-epidemic levels, still failing to win back consumers. "People want to go out to play the will is very strong, but spend money to become more cautious, this is the key to the industry cold." Fu Zheng recalled, to the second quarter, travel to Southeast Asia market "still on the ground", even the May Day Golden Week can not reverse the continuing downturn in Southeast Asia outbound tourism trend.
然而，随着航空公司运力和目的地供应链的恢复，东南亚旅游价格逐渐回落到疫情爆发前的水平，仍未能赢回消费者的青睐。"大家想出去玩的意愿很强烈，花钱却变得更加谨慎，这是行业遇冷的关键"。付峥回忆，到了第二季度，赴东南亚旅游市场 "仍在原地踏步"，即使是五一黄金周也无法扭转东南亚出境游持续低迷的趋势。
"Summer is the most important peak season for the Southeast Asian travel market." Zhao Jun, founder of Lazy Cat Travel, an overseas free travel service brand, told reporters that time is generally the primary constraint on Chinese outbound travel, and the summer season lasts about 45 days, far exceeding the two peak travel periods of the Spring Festival and the 11th anniversary holiday. In other words, "if the Southeast Asian market does not have any improvement in the summer vacation, this year's business is basically difficult to say optimistic.
"暑期是东南亚旅游市场最重要的旺季"。海外自由行服务品牌懒猫旅行创始人赵军告诉记者，一般来说，时间是中国人出境游的首要制约因素，而暑期长达45天左右，远超春节和十一长假两个出游高峰期。换句话说，"如果东南亚市场在暑假没有任何起色，今年的生意基本难言乐观"。
By the time June, Southeast Asian travel wholesalers can no longer sit still, have cut prices and promotions, and even lose money to make money, only to let the market restore a trace of warmth. However, the industry is clear that the substantial concessions in exchange for the prosperity will not last long.
时至6月，东南亚旅游批发商再也坐不住了，纷纷降价促销，甚至赔本赚吆喝，只为让市场恢复一丝暖意。不过，业内人士清楚，大幅让利换来的繁荣不会持续太久。
Faster than the market recovery is all kinds of "negative news". From the beginning of the year, "travel in Southeast Asia was kidnapped Karma waist" alarming rumors were rampant. early May, Indonesia, Bali, the Chinese couple killed, although the Indonesian police gave "the man murdered the woman after the suicide" investigation conclusion, still can not change the local Tourism market is in the doldrums.
比市场复苏更快的是各种 "负面新闻"。从年初开始，"东南亚旅游遭绑架噶腰 "的惊人传言就甚嚣尘上。5月初，印尼巴厘岛一对华人夫妇遇害，尽管印尼警方给出了 "男杀女后自杀 "的调查结论，仍无法改变当地旅游市场的低迷。
Subsequently, the domestic successive release of the "disappearance of her", "stake all on one throw" and other crime movies based on Southeast Asia, Southeast Asia travel "discouragement guide". Propaganda "based on real cases" of the "desperate" in the domestic release of two days, Zhao Jun in Thailand's travel services company to receive orders suddenly fell off a cliff, "directly down by half".
随后，国内接连上映了《消失的她》《孤注一掷》等取材于东南亚的犯罪题材电影，成了东南亚旅行的“劝退指南”。宣传“取材于真实案例”的《孤注一掷》在国内上映两天后，赵俊在泰国的旅游服务公司接单量突然断崖式下降，“直接掉下去一半”。
"Employees receive countless inquiries every day asking if Thailand is safe." Zhao Jun said helplessly that the company received tens of thousands of Chinese tourists in Thailand in the first half of the year without any problems, but it is clear that these facts can not really dispel the safety concerns of more tourists.
"员工每天都会接到无数询问泰国是否安全的电话"。赵军无奈地说，上半年公司在泰国接待了数万名中国游客，没有出现任何问题，但这些事实显然无法真正打消更多游客的安全顾虑。
As a representative country of Southeast Asian tourism, Thailand's strict e-visa regulations introduced in May this year also blocked the return of Chinese tourists. Previously, Thai Prime Minister Saita Thavisin, in his discussion with top executives of Thai airports and airlines on how to attract more foreign tourists in the fourth quarter of the year, talked about the cumbersome process of applying for visas for Chinese tourists to visit Thailand and the high fees charged, which have resulted in fewer than expected trips by Chinese tourists to Thailand this year. He also pointed out that as of the first seven months of this year, the number of foreign tourists visiting Phuket was about 70 percent of what it was before the epidemic, but Chinese tourists have only recovered to 30 percent of what they were before the epidemic.
作为东南亚旅游的代表国家，泰国今年5月出台的严格电子签证规定也阻挡了中国游客的回流。此前，泰国总理赛塔·他威信在与泰国机场和航空公司高层就今年第四季度如何吸引更多外国游客进行座谈时曾谈到，中国游客赴泰签证申请流程繁琐、收费高昂，导致今年中国游客赴泰人数低于预期。他还指出，截至今年前七个月，到访普吉岛的外国游客数量约为疫情发生前的 70%，但中国游客仅恢复到疫情发生前的 30%。
"The visa threshold is significantly higher than in 2019." Zhao Jun, for example, said that the Thai visa application materials have increased, and the difficulty is comparable to that of a Schengen visa. Tourists can easily queue up for two or three hours to cross the border, in addition, the cost has been raised to four or five hundred yuan, three or four times as much as before the epidemic.
"签证门槛明显高于2019年" 赵军举例说，泰国签证申请材料增加，难度堪比申根签证。游客动辄排队两三个小时才能过关，此外，费用也提高到四五百元人民币，是疫情发生前的三四倍。
In fact, the first half of this year, Chinese tourists in Southeast Asia only recovered to the epidemic before the "zero remainder". Thailand's Ministry of Tourism and Sports in August announced the tourism industry "report card" shows that: from January to July this year, China has about 1.83 million tourists visited Thailand, ranked second, is no longer Thailand's largest source of tourists. Similar to Thailand, in the first half of the year, Chinese tourists to Singapore only 424,000, only to recover to 2019 11.78%.
事实上，今年上半年，东南亚的中国游客只恢复到疫情前的“零头”。泰国旅游和体育部于8月公布的旅游业“成绩单”显示：今年1~7月，中国约有183万人次游客到访泰国，位列第二，已经不再是泰国最大客源地。与泰国类似，上半年，中国赴新加坡游客量只有42.4万人次，仅恢复到2019年的11.78％。
旅游软件数据
There is no shortage of tourists in Southeast Asia, just less Chinese tourists." Zhao Jun lamented. Affected by regional conflicts and prices, from last winter to this year's Spring Festival, a large number of Europeans to Southeast Asia to avoid the cold vacation, and even stay for half a year, the hotel, the price of transportation have been inflated. After the arrival of the summer, theoretically should enter the peak season of the Chinese source market "did not thrive". Southeast Asia on the street or beach, you can still see a lot of Asian faces of tourists, but they are mostly from South Korea and Malaysia.
东南亚不缺游客，只是少了中国游客"。赵军感慨道。受地区冲突和物价影响，从去年冬天到今年春节，大量欧洲人到东南亚避寒度假，甚至一住就是半年，酒店、交通的价格都虚高了。夏季到来后，理论上应该进入旺季的中国客源市场 "并不兴旺"。东南亚的街头或海边，依然可以看到不少亚洲面孔的游客，但他们大多来自韩国和马来西亚。
"In the first half of this year, the Southeast Asian outbound tourism market has only recovered to 25%~30% before the epidemic." Fu Zheng said with a bitter smile, the recovery of flights from Beijing to Thailand, for example, only three flights per week, while there were three flights per day before the epidemic.
“今年上半年，东南亚出境游市场只恢复到疫情前25％~30％。”付峥苦笑说，以北京飞往泰国的航班恢复情况为例，目前每周只开通3班，而疫情前每天就有3趟航班。
Zhao Jun's most recent work needs to go to Thailand in July, the flight from Guangzhou to Phuket, the empty seat close to 1/4. landing also basically do not see the flag of the Chinese tour guide waiting for the tour group of the ground receiving agency figure, the epidemic before the large-scale Chinese group tours are no longer in full bloom.
赵俊最近一次因工作需要去泰国是在7月，从广州飞普吉岛的航班，空位接近1/4。落地后也基本看不到打着中文导游旗等待旅游团的地接社身影，疫情前大规模的中国跟团游盛况已经不再。
How the "number one source country" was made
“第一大客源国”是怎样炼成的
Before the epidemic, dialects from all over China could always be heard in Bangkok's shopping centers along the Chao Phraya River. Even in the small city of Paixian, a four-hour drive from Chiang Mai with 726 turns to get there, you could see long lines of Chinese tourists lining up to clock in. But today, the streets of Thailand are still bustling under the scorching sun, except for the faces of a large number of Chinese tourists.
在疫情之前，曼谷湄南河畔的购物中心，总能听到中国各地方言。即便是在距离清迈4小时车程、驶过726道弯才抵达的小城拜县，也能看到中国游客排队打卡的长龙。但如今，烈日下的泰国街头依旧熙熙攘攘，唯独少了大量中国游客的面孔。
Southeast Asia is still the same Southeast Asia, it's just that Chinese tourists' understanding and expectations of it have changed.
"Southeast Asia tourism market almost every ten years will experience a leapfrog development." Fu Zheng recalled to the reporter, he operates the sunshine vacation from the early 1990s to do "new Malaysia and Thailand" market started the traditional travel agency.
东南亚还是那个东南亚，只是中国游客对它的理解和期许发生了变化。
“东南亚旅游市场几乎每十年就会经历一次跨越式发展。”付峥对《中国新闻周刊》回忆说，他经营的阳光假期就是从上世纪90年代初做“新马泰”市场起家的传统旅行社。
Chinese outbound group tours to South-East Asia began as family-visiting trips. With the approval of the State Council, from 1988 to 1992, Chinese citizens were able to travel to Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines to visit their relatives, until July 1, 1997, when family-visiting trips to the four countries mentioned above, as well as to Hong Kong and Macao, were formally transformed into outbound tours for groups of Chinese citizens.
中国出境东南亚团队游始于探亲游。1988年至1992年，经国务院批准，中国公民可以赴泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、菲律宾等国探亲，直到1997年7月1日，上述四国及香港、澳门的探亲游才正式转变为中国公民组团出境游。
"At that time, outbound travel was mainly for official visits, and it was not until 2003 that the number of travelers gradually popularized to the general public for the first time in a large-scale outbreak." Fu Zheng recalled that the opportunity for the market to explode is the state in the end of 2002 approved the "second batch of outbound travel agencies", a total of 528, while canceling the 1997 approved outbound travel organization and agency. Outbound agencies in Beijing alone increased from 10 to 41, "outbound tourism began to market competition".
“那时出境游以公务考察为主，直到2003年才逐渐普及到大众层面，出行人数第一次大规模爆发。”付峥回忆说，市场爆发的契机是国家于2002年底审核批准了“第二批出境旅行社”，共528家，同时取消了1997年批准的出国旅游组团社和代办点。仅北京地区的出境社就从10家增加到了41家，“出境游开始了市场化竞争”。
日本名古屋，从天津出发的旅客抵达日本爱知县。图/视觉中国
At the 2020 China Leisure and Vacation Conference, Dai Xuefeng, a researcher at the Tourism and Leisure Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, announced a set of data that, according to 2018 comparable prices, from 1997 to 2004, China's per capita GDP rose from 1,815 U.S. dollars to 3,109 U.S. dollars, and the outbound tourism then had a blowout, with an average annual growth rate of as high as 27.3%, and appeared close to the per capita of 10,000 U.S. dollars in Japan and South Korea The GDP stage of outbound tourism is characterized by rapid growth.
2020中国休闲度假大会上，中国社会科学院旅游与休闲研究室研究员戴学锋公布了一组数据，按照2018年可比价计算，从1997年到2004年，中国人均GDP从1815美元上升到3109美元，出境游随之井喷式发展，年均增长率高达27.3％，出现了日韩接近人均1万美元GDP阶段的出境游快速增长特征。
"The people have money in their pockets, domestic travel after a circle, but also want to go abroad to see, Southeast Asia is the first choice." Fu Zheng recalled, coinciding with China's accession to the WTO soon, foreign enterprises into the country, do the Chinese people's overseas travel business. In the industry repeatedly called for, around 2006, a number of private overseas travel agencies have been set up, including where to go, poor tour, Touniu International Travel Agency and other well-known enterprises.
“老百姓兜里有钱了，国内旅游完一圈，还想出国看看，东南亚是首选。”付峥回忆说，恰逢中国加入世贸组织不久，外资企业涌入国内，做起了中国人的境外游生意。在业界一再呼吁下，2006年前后，一批民营境外旅行社纷纷成立，包括去哪儿、穷游、途牛国际旅行社等知名企业。
Sunshine Holidays" is also a limited liability company registered in 2007. Similarly, a large number of travel agencies mainly engaged in outbound travel from the "second batch of outbound agencies" under a department, to independent registered companies, or acquired by other enterprises, foreign travel market competition is more fully, the price of the tour was down, attracting more tourists traveling abroad.
“阳光假期”也是在2007年注册的有限责任公司。与此类似，一大批主营出境的旅行社从挂靠在“第二批出境社”下面的一个部门，到独立注册公司，或是被其他企业收购，境外游市场竞争更加充分，团费价格被打下来，吸引了更多游客出境旅行。
俄罗斯圣彼得堡，中国游客参观艾尔米塔什博物馆。
In order to avoid price competition in the stock market, travel agencies began to focus on the development of routes, further releasing Southeast Asian tourism resources, but also stimulate the travel and consumption of domestic tourists. 2009, Sunshine Holidays Travel Agency took the lead in the Maldives chartered flights introduced to China, bringing fire to the island vacation tours, "spend 10,000 or 20,000 yuan to live on the island for a week" instead of "Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand sightseeing" has become popular. "Spending ten thousand to twenty thousand dollars to live on the island for a week" instead of "New Maldives and Thailand sightseeing" has become popular.
为了避开存量市场的价格竞争，旅行社开始重点开发线路，进一步释放东南亚旅游资源，也刺激了国内游客的出行和消费。2009年，阳光假日旅行社率先将马尔代夫包机引入中国，带火了海岛度假游，"花一两万元住海岛一周 "取代 "新马泰观光 "成为热门。"花一两万元住海岛一周 "代替 "新马泰观光 "成为流行。
According to the study of the World Tourism Organization, when the per capita GDP exceeds US$5,000, tourism continues to be upgraded from sightseeing and leisure to vacation tours, the duration of tourism continues to be prolonged, and the products and forms of tourism are gradually enriched.In 2011, China's per capita GDP exceeded US$5,000 for the first time, and the number of outbound trips has been increasing by ten million per year.
根据世界旅游组织的研究，当人均 GDP 超过 5000 美元时，旅游不断从观光休闲向度假游升级，旅游时间不断延长，旅游产品和形式逐渐丰富。2011 年，中国人均 GDP 首次超过 5000 美元，出境游人数以每年 1000 万人次的速度递增。
In addition to the mutual pull of market supply and demand, film and television works are also credited with pulling tourism. British sociologist John Earley analyzed in The Tourist's Gaze that tourists' choices of places to visit are based on the desire for entertainment, fulfillment of dreams, and participation, whereas the desire may be constituted by non-tourism factors such as films, television, literary works and magazines.
除了市场供需的相互拉动，影视作品对旅游业的拉动也功不可没。英国社会学家约翰-厄利在《游客的目光》中分析，游客对旅游地的选择是基于娱乐、实现梦想和参与的欲望，而这种欲望可能是由电影、电视、文学作品和杂志等非旅游因素构成的。
In 2012, the small-cost comedy film "Lost in Thailand" directed by Xu Zheng not only won 1.26 billion yuan at the box office, but also made Bangkok, Chiang Mai and other tourist cities known to the people of China. Major travel agencies also took the opportunity to follow the trend, have launched different routes of Thailand tours, the filming location of the movie Chiang Mai has become another hot route for Thailand tours after Bangkok.
2012 年，徐峥执导的小成本喜剧电影《泰囧》不仅斩获 12.6 亿元票房，也让曼谷、清迈等旅游城市为国人所熟知。各大旅行社也借机跟风，纷纷推出不同线路的泰国游，电影拍摄地清迈成为继曼谷之后的又一条泰国游热门线路。
The popularity of "Lost in Thailand" directly contributed to at least a three-fold increase in the number of domestic tourists signing up for group tours and free trips to Thailand during the 2013 Spring Festival. The then Prime Minister of Thailand also received Xu Zheng and the crew of "Lost in Thailand" at the Prime Minister's Office to thank them for their promotion of Thai tourism.
2013年春节期间，《泰囧》的热播直接导致国内游客报名参加泰国跟团游和自由行的人数至少增长了3倍。时任泰国总理还在总理府接见了徐峥和《泰囧》剧组，感谢他们对泰国旅游的推广。
By 2013, the number of Chinese citizens leaving China had reached 98,185,200, an increase of 18.0 per cent over the previous year, with more than 90 per cent of them traveling for private purposes. Thailand became the most popular first destination in Southeast Asia, with arrivals exceeding 4 million, and China surpassed Malaysia to become Thailand's largest source of tourists.
截至 2013 年，中国公民出境人数达到 9818.52 万人次，比上年增长 18.0%，其中 90%以上为因私出境旅游。泰国成为东南亚最受欢迎的第一目的地，入境游客超过 400 万人次，中国超过马来西亚成为泰国最大的游客来源国。
Overseas free travel is also heating up.In 2013, Zhao Jun, who made his first bucket of gold in Lijiang, set his sights on Southeast Asian outbound travel in order to get rid of the domestic market's inward spiral. He saw that local pick-up, transportation, accommodation, catering, Chinese guides and other fragmented tourism services were low in quantity and quality, "to exaggerate, the free travel at that time was simply a refugee type of travel". Zhao Jun said that the new urban middle class is replacing the older generation as the main body of travel, compared with sightseeing, they prefer free travel, in-depth tours, the pursuit of service details and quality.
海外自由行也在升温。2013年，在丽江掘得第一桶金的赵军，为了摆脱国内市场的内螺旋，将目光投向了东南亚出境游。他看到，当地接送、交通、住宿、餐饮、中文导游等碎片化旅游服务数量少、质量差，"夸张点说，当时的自由行简直就是难民式旅游"。赵军说，城市新中产阶级正在取代老一辈成为旅游的主体，与观光游相比，他们更喜欢自由行、深度游，追求服务的细节和品质。
韩国济州岛，自上海出发的“蓝梦之星”号邮轮靠港停泊，下船的中国游客正在前往客运站
Zhao Jun caught up with the good times. 2013 just entered Southeast Asia to do free travel, the company's turnover reached 5 million yuan. All the way to the rapid development, to 2017 the total turnover expanded 100 times, reached 520 million yuan. At the peak of operation, Lazy Cat Travel laid out 44 destinations in 11 countries, with the Thai market alone contributing 65% of the revenue. When Southeast Asian tourism was at its peak, Zhao Jun could receive one or two thousand Chinese tourists from Phuket airport every day, and the queue to enter the country had to wait for more than two hours.
赵俊赶上了好时候。2013年刚进入东南亚做自由行，公司成交总额就做到了500万元。一路飞速发展，到2017年成交总额扩张了100倍，达到5.2亿元。经营高峰期，懒猫旅行布局了11个国家的44个目的地，仅泰国市场就贡献了65％的营收。东南亚旅游最火爆时，赵俊每天从普吉岛机场就能接待一两千名中国游客，排队入境就要等两个多小时。
Thailand's Ministry of Tourism and Sports statistics show that in 2017, the total number of foreign tourists traveling to Thailand exceeded 35 million, of which Chinese tourists accounted for more than 9.8 million, accounting for the highest proportion. During the same period, in addition to Thailand, China also topped the "top source country" of many countries. Data show that in 2017, more than 7.35 million Chinese tourists traveled to Japan, 4.17 million went to South Korea, 4 million went to Vietnam, 2.05 million went to Indonesia, 1.5 million went to Russia, 1.2 million went to Cambodia. According to conservative estimates, China has become the "No. 1 source country" for Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, Russia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Maldives and South Korea.
泰国旅游与体育部统计数据显示，2017年，赴泰旅游的外国游客总数超过3500万人次，其中中国游客超过980万人次，占比最高。同期，除泰国外，中国也荣登多国 "顶级客源国 "榜首。数据显示，2017年，中国游客赴日本旅游超过735万人次，赴韩国417万人次，赴越南400万人次，赴印尼205万人次，赴俄罗斯150万人次，赴柬埔寨120万人次。据保守估计，中国已成为泰国、日本、越南、俄罗斯、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马尔代夫和韩国等国的 "第一大客源国"。
"Thanks to factors such as rising national incomes, the crowd's growing experience in outbound travel, the relaxation of visa policies, easier access to online travel information, and the frequent opening of international air routes, Chinese people's travel radius is expanding rapidly." McKinsey's "Myths and Truths: In-depth Observations on China's Outbound Tourism Market" report released in September 2018 analyzed that unlike going to Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, and South Korea, tourists choosing to travel to Southeast Asia and Europe for a single trip usually include multiple countries, and because of language barriers, they need the assistance of a tour group even more, with the proportion of the clientele participating in tours in both markets reaching about 50 percent.
Before the outbreak of the epidemic, China's outbound tourism reached 160 million trips in 2019, a 17-fold increase over 20 years ago.
Chinese tourists are no longer easy to "buy"
Before the epidemic, Chinese tourists like to "buy" is the impression left by the world.
“得益于国民收入提高、人群出境游经验的日渐丰富、签证政策放宽、在线旅游信息的更易获取、国际航线的频频开通等因素，中国人的旅游半径迅速扩大。”麦肯锡2018年9月发布的《迷思与真相：中国出境游市场深度观察》报告分析，不同于前往港澳日韩，选择东南亚和欧洲的游客单次行程通常包括多个国家，因语言不通，更需要旅行团协助，这两个市场客群参团比例均达到50％左右。
到疫情暴发前，2019年中国出境旅游达到1.6亿人次，比20年前增长17倍。
中国游客不再轻易“爆买”
疫情前，喜欢“爆买”是中国游客留给全世界的印象。
Indeed, Chinese tourists also ranked first in the world in terms of outbound spending in 2019. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China spent $127.5 billion on outbound travel in the first half of 2019, with more than 50% of the travel spending taking place in Asia.
确实，2019年，中国游客的出境消费也排在世界第一。据国家外汇管理局的数据，2019年上半年，中国境外旅行支出1275亿美元，超五成旅行支出发生在亚洲地区。
Back in 2017, Thailand's Undersecretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Pongpannu, said that more than 35 million trips generated more than 1.82 trillion baht (about 366 billion yuan) for Thailand's tourism industry; Chinese tourists continue to be the largest contributor to Thailand's tourism industry in terms of both number and amount of revenue generated.The number of Chinese tourists to Thailand increased by 11.97% in 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, and brought more than 520 billion baht (approximately RMB 104.7 billion) in revenue for Thailand, an increase of 15.78% year-on-year.
早在2017年，泰国旅游和体育部次长蓬帕努曾表示，3500多万人次为泰国旅游业创收超过1.82万亿泰铢（约合3660亿元人民币）；在数量和创收金额上对泰国旅游业贡献最大的依旧是中国游客。2017年赴泰中国游客数量较2016年同期增长11.97％，为泰国带来超过5200亿泰铢（约合1047亿元人民币）的收入，同比增长15.78％。
Another destination where Chinese tourists like to buy in bursts is Japan. According to statistics from the Japanese government's Tourism Bureau, in 2019, Chinese visitors to Japan have reached 9,594,000, accounting for about 1/3 of foreign visitors to Japan, with a total consumption of about 1 trillion 770 billion yen, or about 113.67 billion yuan, and the contribution of tourism consumption is even as high as 40%.
另一个中国游客喜欢爆买的目的地是日本。据日本政府观光局统计数据显示，2019年，中国访日游客已达959.4万人次，占到赴日外国游客的约1/3，总消费额约为1兆7700亿日元，约合1136.7亿元人民币，旅游消费贡献度更是高达40％。
Chinese tourists were once the most popular consumers in Japanese shopping centers. When a Chinese customer walks in the door and says "hello", he or she is not surprised to hear a "hello", and Chinese shopping guides are "standard" here. In drugstores, Chinese tourists buy by the basket, and the small ticket has to be folded several times to make it easy to carry.
中国游客一度成为最受日本购物中心欢迎的消费者。当中国客人走进门习惯性说“hello”时，会毫无防备地听到一声“你好”，中文导购在这里是“标配”。在药妆店，中国游客的购买量按筐计算，小票打出来要对折几次才方便携带。
Now, these scenes are rarely seen. August 27 this year, more than 8:00 pm, Japan's JCL President Sun Lin suddenly received a phone call from a domestic customer notification, canceled the winter holiday study tour program, the reason is "worried about Japan's discharge of nuclear contaminated water into the sea incident brought about by a series of impact. In the past month, Sun Lin hands of 20% to 30% of the orders for the same reason was returned.
现在，这样的场景已经很少见了。今年8月27日晚上8点多，日本JCL株式会社社长孙琳突然接到国内某客户的电话通知，取消寒假游学计划，理由是 "担心日本核污染水排入大海事件带来的一系列影响"。近一个月来，孙琳手中20%至30%的订单因同样的原因被退回。
"The first tour was canceled before it was full." Beijing a main do Japan and South Korea tour travel agency in charge of Lu Yuan told reporters. August 10, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism has just released the third batch of resumption of outbound group tours to the list of countries, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia and other 78 countries are listed among them, Japan was once the highest concern of the country. But with the discharge of nuclear contaminated water into the sea event fermentation, Lu Yuan is worried about the follow-up to collect customers pressure, decided to temporarily cancel the tour to Japan products, stop loss in time.
“首发团还没报满就取消了。”北京一家主做日韩游的旅行社负责人陆远告诉记者。8月10日，文旅部刚发布第三批恢复出境跟团游的国家名单，日韩英美及澳大利亚等78个国家位列其中，日本一度是受关注度最高的国家。但随着排放核污染水入海事件发酵，陆远担心后续收客压力大，决定暂时取消赴日游产品，及时止损。
Having run a travel agency in Japan for 15 years, Xie Shanpeng intuitively feels that the number of Chinese travelers to Japan has indeed dropped. "Sales in July and August this year were about 40 million yen (1.97 million yuan), but if there are no new inquiries, [sales] may drop to zero." In a previous interview with a Japanese TV station, Xie Shanpeng said bitterly.
在日本经营旅行社15年，谢善鹏直观地感受到，中国赴日旅客数量确实下降了。“今年七八月的销售额约为4000万日元（折合人民币197万元），但如果没有新的咨询，（销售额）可能会降到零。”此前接受日本电视台访问时，谢善鹏苦笑说。
Data on foreign tourists visiting Japan released by the Japanese government's Tourism Bureau (JNTO) showed that 594,600 tourists from mainland China visited Japan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 86.9 percent compared to the same period before the epidemic, making it the country with the most significant drop. Replacing the figure of Chinese tourists were North American tourists from the United States, Canada and Mexico, as well as Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern tourists.
日本政府观光局（JNTO）公布的访日外国游客数据显示，今年上半年访日的中国大陆游客为59.46万人次，与疫情发生前同期相比减少了86.9%，是降幅最大的国家。取代中国游客的是来自美国、加拿大和墨西哥的北美游客，以及东南亚和中东游客。
第三十一届广州国际旅游展览会上的广告
Fewer Chinese tourists are traveling to Japan, but the cost of travel is not declining. Ctrip air tickets show that on the day of the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the cheapest flights from Beijing to Tokyo to 6,590 yuan, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the airline company often launched discounted tickets, round-trip to Japan is generally only three or four thousand yuan.
赴日游的中国游客减少，旅行成本却不见下降。携程机票显示，今年中秋节当天，从北京飞往东京最便宜的航班也要6590元，疫情暴发前，航司经常推出打折机票，往返日本一般只需三四千元。
It's not just the cost of booking airfare and hotels for free tours that has soared, but the price of group tours is also on the rise. Sightseeing cars alone have generally risen by 30 percent. The cost of meals is even higher, and "more than 90 percent of the restaurants that can accommodate group tours have closed down." Xie Shanpeng of East Japan International Travel Agency (Good Travel Japan) replied.
Also a popular destination country for Chinese tourists, "the recovery of the Japanese tourism supply chain has been much slower than in Southeast Asia." Sun Lin contrast, three years of the epidemic, the closure of countless travel agencies, hotels, restaurants, the entire supply chain to rebuild, and start a business in Japan, from the site selection to the approval of the passage of each procedure is extremely complex, the result is that the progress is too slow, "a new restaurant, hate can not be checked out the ancestors of the eighteen generations, the preparatory time does not have half a year can not be. "
"Tour groups more than 10 people, the restaurant are not good to book." Currently let Sun Lin is the most headache is the guests dining problems, he explained that Japan promotes service first, once the restaurant predicted that the size of the guests beyond the capacity to receive, will politely and firmly rejected in the end, he can only be divided into several waves of tourists, in the name of different companies to book meals in batches.
不只是自由行预定机票和酒店的费用猛涨，跟团游的价格也在上浮。仅观光用车一项就普遍上涨了30％。用餐成本更高，“可以接待团队游的餐厅有90％以上都倒闭了。”东日本国际旅行社（善游日本）的谢善鹏回复。
同样是受中国游客所喜爱的目的地国家，“日本旅游供应链的恢复要比东南亚慢很多”。孙琳对比说，疫情三年，倒闭的旅行社、酒店、餐馆不计其数，整个供应链都要重建，而在日本创业，从选址到审批通过，每道程序都极为复杂，结果就是进度太慢，“新开一间餐馆，恨不能把祖宗十八代都查清，准备时间没有半年都搞不定。”
“旅游团超过10人，餐厅都不好预定。”目前让孙琳最为头疼的是客人用餐问题，他解释说，日本推崇服务至上，一旦餐馆预测客人规模超出接待能力，便会客气而坚定地拒绝到底，他只能将团客拆分成几波、以不同公司名义分批预订餐位。
The Survey of Foreign Consumption Trends in Japan released by the Tourism Agency of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan shows that from 2016 to 2018, the percentage of tourists who chose "satisfied or above" exceeded 97% every year, which also contributes to a notable feature of Japan's tourism industry - high repeat rate of tourists, every year about 60% of foreign tourists to Japan are "regular customers" who have already visited Japan. -The high repeat rate of tourists, about 60% of foreign tourists coming to Japan every year are "repeat visitors" who have already been to Japan.
Since the enactment of the Basic Law for the Promotion of Tourism in Japan at the end of 2006, the tourism industry has become a new pillar industry of Japan in the era of aging and childlessness. The "old and new guests" drive the rapid development of Japan's tourism, from 2010 to 2016, the six years, Japan's travel industry has seen explosive growth, an annual growth rate of more than 20%, and the large-scale influx of Chinese tourists can be said to be the "growth" behind the biggest driving force. The large-scale influx of Chinese tourists can be said to be the biggest driving force behind the "growth".
日本国土交通省观光厅发布的《在日外国人消费动向调查》显示，从2016年到2018年，选择 "满意以上 "的游客比例每年都超过97%，这也促成了日本旅游业的一个显著特点--游客回头率高，每年赴日外国游客中约有六成是已经来过日本的 "老客户"。-游客回头率高，每年赴日外国游客中约有 60% 是已经到过日本的 "回头客"。
自 2006 年底日本颁布《观光振兴基本法》以来，旅游业已成为日本老龄化和少子化时代的新支柱产业。"新老客人 "带动了日本旅游业的快速发展，从2010年到2016年的6年间，日本旅游业出现了爆发式增长，年增长率超过20%，而中国游客的大规模涌入可以说是 "增长 "背后最大的推动力。中国游客的大规模涌入可以说是 "增长 "背后最大的推动力。
At the end of 2009, Japan officially opened individual single-trip visas to Chinese tourists, which led to a 40.4% increase in the number of Chinese tourists the following year, the highest among all countries. Soon after, the number of tourists visiting Japan dropped dramatically due to the earthquake and nuclear leakage crisis in Japan. In order to revitalize the market, the Japanese government officially opened individual multiple-journey visas to Chinese tourists at the end of 2011, and in the following year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan increased by another 36.6%.
2009 年底，日本正式对中国游客开放个人单次签证，次年中国游客人数增长 40.4%，居各国之首。不久后，受日本地震和核泄漏危机的影响，访日游客数量急剧下降。为了重振市场，日本政府于 2011 年底正式对中国游客开放个人多次往返签证，次年访日中国游客人数又增加了 36.6%。
By 2014, there were more than 2.41 million Chinese visitors to Japan, a surge of 84% year-on-year. At the same time, Chinese tourists in Japan's consumption amount also reached 2013 more than twice, about 29.2 billion yuan, accounting for all foreign tourists in Japan consumption of 1/4. 2015, superimposed on the depreciation of the yen and other factors, Chinese tourists in Japan to sweep the goods, "burst buy", Chinese and Japanese media competing reports, attracting to Japan Chinese The number of Chinese tourists to Japan doubled from the previous year.
截至 2014 年，访日中国游客超过 241 万人次，同比激增 84%。与此同时，中国游客在日消费金额也达到2013年的两倍多，约为292亿元人民币，占全部外国游客在日消费额的1/4。2015年，叠加日元贬值等因素，中国游客在日扫货 "爆买"，中日媒体竞相报道，吸引赴日中国人 赴日中国游客人数比上年翻了一番。
"Even if Chinese tourists return, the trend of buying may not reappear." Sun Lin feeling, Chinese people travel to Japan mentality has changed, the form of tourism is more inclined to small groups, in-depth tours, consumption habits from "spend money on sweeping goods" transferred to improve the quality of food, accommodation and transportation. In Sun Lin's impression, the Chinese people "buy" heat to 2019 has gradually dispersed. Before the epidemic, Japan received more than 20,000 mainland tourists every day, but the proportion of "poor tour" is getting higher and higher.
“就算中国游客回归，爆买风潮也未必会再次出现。”孙琳感觉，中国人赴日旅行的心态已经发生转变，旅游形式上更偏向小团队、深度游，消费习惯也从“花钱扫货”转移到提升吃住行品质上。在孙琳印象中，国人“爆买”热到2019年已逐渐散去。疫情前，日本每天接待的大陆游客虽然超过2万人次，但其中“穷游”比例越来越高。
Statistics from the Japan Tourism Agency also show that in the first quarter of this year, the categories that accounted for the largest share of shopping by Chinese tourists were snacks and other food (beverages/tobacco), comparing with the data of the first quarter of 2019, the purchase rate of cosmetics and perfume dropped by 47.2 percent, and electronic products didn't even squeeze into the top ten.
"While maintaining the Chinese market, the Japanese government started to heavily lay out the European and Southeast Asian markets three years ago."
日本观光厅的统计数据也显示，今年第一季度，中国游客购物占比最大的品类是零食等食品（饮料/烟草），与2019年第一季度的数据相比，化妆品、香水的购买率下降了47.2%，电子产品甚至没有挤进前十。
"在维护中国市场的同时，日本政府早在3年前就开始大力布局欧洲和东南亚市场"。
Will massive Chinese tour groups ever return?
大规模的中国旅行团还会回来吗？
In August this year, after the third batch of the list was announced, the number of countries for outbound group tours expanded from 60 to 138, including almost all popular outbound destinations. Ctrip data show that after the third batch of the list was released on August 10, the instantaneous search for outbound tour products increased by more than 20 times. Zongxin Travel also said that one week after the release of the list, the number of inquiries for outbound tours increased by 200% year-on-year.
However, demand alone cannot support the recovery of the entire market. Yu Hui, general manager of emerging business of Zhongxin Travel and general manager of Miracle Travel, has told the media that the overall price of ground receiving this year has increased by about 30% compared to 2019, and the prices of hotels and airfares have continued to rise, and a lot of route products are priced at the beginning of the year, and the rise in costs has brought huge losses to some travel agencies. In addition, due to the small number of direct flights, it is difficult to meet a large group of several hundred people at once, and large-scale group tours can only arrive in batches, lengthening the time line and increasing costs, which also creates a certain impediment to the recovery of outbound tourism.
今年8月，第三批名单公布后，出境跟团游国家从60个扩大到138个，几乎囊括了所有热门出境游目的地。携程数据显示，8月10日第三批名单公布后，出境游产品的瞬时搜索量增长了20多倍。众信旅游也表示，名单发布一周后，出境游咨询量同比增长200%。
然而，仅靠需求并不能支撑整个市场的复苏。众信旅游新兴业务总经理、奇迹旅游总经理于辉曾对媒体表示，今年地接价格整体较2019年上涨了30%左右，酒店、机票价格持续上涨，很多线路产品都是年初定价，成本上涨给部分旅行社带来了巨大损失。此外，由于直飞航班较少，难以一次性满足几百人的大型团队，大型团队游只能分批到达，拉长了时间线，增加了成本，这也对出境游的复苏造成了一定的阻碍。
Domestic travel agencies have either been forced to interrupt their supply chains based on large-scale group tours due to the epidemic, or are facing adjustments to adapt to the new changes in China's outbound tours, which are "smaller and more sophisticated".
国内旅行社要么因疫情而被迫中断基于大规模团体游的供应链，要么面临调整，以适应中国出境游“更小、更复杂”的新变化。
After the liberalization of outbound travel this year, the first to compete for the "high net worth group" has become the consensus of the head of the travel agency.
今年出境游放开后，先争“高净值群体”成为各旅行社负责人的共识。